Since the launch of Abenomics in early 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been aggressively easing its monetary policy, commonly known as “the first arrow of Abenomics”. These measures have included the introduction of “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE)” in April 2013, the modified “QQE with a Negative Interest Rate” in January 2016 and the most recently announced “QQE with Yield Curve Control”, in September 2016. Just over 3.5 years since its launch, the impact of the first arrow has become less effective, particularly on Japan’s exports and the yen.
In the 2nd Quarter of 2016, seasonally adjusted activity decelerated to 1.5 %, down from 2.5% y/y reported in the previous period. Industry, which shrank by 1.5% q/q, was the main contributor to this weak result, due to the fall in oil production and challenges faced by manufacturing and construction industries. The services sector also slowed during the period, to a growth rate of 2.4% YoY, down from 3.4% for 1Q2016.
Coface is awarded ‘Best trade credit insurer in Asia Pacific’ in 2016 by GTR, marking the second time the firm has won this award. GTR is the world’s leading news source, publisher and event organiser for the global trade, commodity, export and supply chain finance industries, with offices in London, Hong Kong and Singapore.
China’s economy grew by 6.9% in 2015, the slowest expansion pace in 25 years. Growth should continue to slow in 2016 and 2017, and will probably undershoot the government’s average annual growth target of 6.5% - as set out in the 13th five-year plan for 2016-2020.
Forecast world growth for 2016 down by 0.2 points to 2.5%. The average level of global risk corresponds to B, « significant risk ». Increasing numbers of emerging markets included in the "extreme" and "very high" risk categories. Three leading world economies become fragile. China penalises activity in several Asian countries. Europe facing positive dynamics, but political risk driven by the Brexit must be monitored (..)