Recovery remains gradual amid external uncertainties
Building on the trend from 2026, Finland's economy is expected to strengthen modestly throughout 2027 following a prolonged period of weak growth. Domestic demand is gradually recovering as inflation eases, real incomes improve and consumer confidence begins to stabilise. Household spending is expected to contribute more positively to growth after a period of subdued consumption, while public investment in infrastructure, defence and the green transition will provide additional support. Nevertheless, the recovery is likely to remain moderate, reflecting still-cautious consumers, a weak housing market and subdued business confidence. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2027 as financing conditions become more favourable and investment activity improves.
External risks continue to weigh on the outlook. Finland's highly open economy remains exposed to weaker demand from key European trading partners, geopolitical tensions and volatility in energy markets. While recent increases in energy prices have added to inflationary pressures, Finland is better insulated than many European economies thanks to its largely fossil-free electricity production, which reduces its dependence on imported energy. Investment in areas such as clean energy, data centres and advanced manufacturing should provide longer-term growth opportunities, helping to offset some of the challenges facing traditional export sectors.
Corporate insolvencies are expected to remain elevated as businesses continue to face weak demand, high labour costs and tight financing conditions. Export-oriented industries, including forestry products, chemicals, metals and manufacturing, remain vulnerable to slower global growth and trade disruption. However, gradually improving domestic demand should help limit a broader deterioration in corporate performance over the forecast period.
Rising public debt remains a key challenge
Public finances continue to be one of Finland's main economic vulnerabilities. Government deficits are expected to persist through 2027 as spending pressures from an ageing population, higher defence commitments and the welfare system continue to outpace revenue growth. Although the government has introduced measures aimed at controlling expenditure and improving labour market participation, public debt is projected to continue rising and remain well above European fiscal benchmarks. Fiscal consolidation is therefore expected to remain a policy priority over the coming years.
Finland's external position is expected to weaken somewhat over 2027, with the current account moving back into a wider deficit after recording a modest surplus in 2025. Stronger domestic demand, rising imports linked to defence procurement and infrastructure investment, and still-subdued external demand are likely to outweigh gains in exports. Nevertheless, the deterioration is not expected to reach the levels seen in the years immediately following the pandemic, when high energy costs and weaker competitiveness weighed heavily on the external balance. As global demand gradually recovers, export growth in technology, industrial goods and green-transition sectors should provide some support, helping to contain the deficit and maintain an overall resilient external position.
Government balances fiscal reform, defence and growth
Prime Minister Petteri Orpo's centre-right coalition government, comprising the National Coalition Party, the Finns Party, the Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats, remains focused on improving Finland's long-term growth prospects while restoring fiscal sustainability. Alongside labour market reforms and measures to boost productivity, the government has introduced a series of tax reductions, including lower income taxes and a reduction in the corporate tax burden, aimed at strengthening competitiveness, supporting investment and encouraging employment.
At the same time, the government has pursued a stricter immigration agenda, tightening requirements for residence permits, family reunification and access to permanent residency while seeking to prioritise labour migration that addresses skills shortages. These policies reflect the growing political focus on migration and integration, particularly among parties within the governing coalition.
However, it is the government's fiscal consolidation programme that has proven most controversial. Spending cuts to welfare programmes, social benefits and public services have faced significant public opposition and contributed to a decline in support for the coalition in recent opinion polls. As a result, the Social Democratic Party has regained a lead in the polls ahead of the next parliamentary election, which is scheduled for spring 2027. While political debate is expected to intensify in the run-up to the election, broad consensus remains around the need to strengthen Finland's competitiveness, increase defence spending and improve the economy's long-term growth potential.

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