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Economic publications

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    The United States, Canada and Mexico: renegotiating the USMCA will be very difficult, but North American trade will survive

    With the United States, Canada and Mexico having begun the formal review of the USMCA , the negotiations are set to be particularly tense. However, despite the growing differences between the three partners, a lasting reversal of North American economic integration remains unlikely, given how deeply entrenched industrial interdependencies have become.

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    June 2026 Risk Review: Hydration break in the Persian Gulf

    As the Middle East moves towards a fragile lull in hostilities, the economic shock caused by the conflict – supply chains perturbation, inflation… - is already spreading to the global economy. Against this backdrop, Coface has carried out 8 country downgrades and 45 sector rating changes (41 downgrades, compared with just 4 upgrades).

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    Latin America: companies are tightening credit in the face of rising late payments

    In an uncertain economic climate, companies in Latin America are tightening their credit terms to protect themselves, but without managing to stem the rise in payments delays. Nearly 8 in 10 companies are now facing payments delay, a rising figure, despite shorter payment terms. This dual trend illustrates the mounting cash flow pressures in the region, against a backdrop of high financing costs and fierce competition.

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    EU–US: a trade compromise to avert escalation, but under close scrutiny

    The compromise reached on 20 May between the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament on the texts ratifying the Turnberry Agreement marks a new stage in trade relations between Brussels and Washington. But behind the appearance of a transatlantic thaw, the agreement primarily reflects a risk management approach: the aim is to avoid a new surge in US protectionism whilst retaining the means to retaliate should the United States renege on its commitments.

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  • Risk Dashboard

    Navigate uncertainty with Coface's global risk assessments for 160 countries and 13 sectors. 

  • #Economic publications

    Middle East: a cost shock, not (yet) a supply shock, for China

    Better equipped than its competitors to deal with energy shocks, China is currently limiting supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. However, rising input costs, combined with a slowdown in global demand, are weighing on already stretched corporate margins.

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    US tariffs: One year on, where do we stand?

    The trade war dominated economic news in 2025, and all the signs suggest it is far from over. Firstly, this article reviews the evidence pointing to the cost of tariffs being absorbed primarily by US companies. It then assesses the resilience of global trade.

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    Will Arctic shipping routes really reshape the map of global trade?

    The conflict in the Middle East and perturbations in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted the fragility of the global maritime system. Against this backdrop, Arctic shipping routes are attracting renewed interest, as climate change makes navigation along them easier. Coface’s analysis shows, however, that within five years their commercial impact will remain marginal, although they could nevertheless offer significant benefits for certain commodity flows.

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  • Risk Dashboard

    Navigate uncertainty with Coface's global risk assessments for 160 countries and 13 sectors. 

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